I recently opened a one-day-only “Crazy Days” sale aimed at getting subscribers to convert from my free list. But existing subscribers can also use this sale to buy cheapo gift subscriptions for their friends. So for its last few hours—it ends at midnight tonight—I’m announcing it more broadly. Go jump on it if you’re interested.
Very nice overview, as usual, but it overlooks one possibility: if we end up with Trump and Biden as nominees of their respective parties, will a third-party candidate jump into the race? I think it’s a very real possibility, and it will be hard to predict whether such a candidate siphons more votes from Trump or Biden.
It looks like we have our first data point taking into account the third-party candidate. There is no data on what effect the Kennedy candidacy would have on the electoral vote count, but the poll does seem to indicate it would favor Biden significantly and may turn some purple states blue. But obviously, it's early yet. The only real and lasting takeaway here is that the number of independents hungry for a viable third option remains significantly high.
Good point. But how many votes would a candidate need to siphon in a small purple state? How many votes would it take to tip Georgia (11,780?) or Arizona, or to ensure that the Blue Wall (MI, WI, PA) stays blue? Someone like Chris Christie could muster that many votes in a 3-way contest, but the question is whose votes would he be siphoning off?
Or a wild card from the private sector could take a shot, a la Ross Perot (same question).
It's a fair bet that no one is strong enough to win any electoral votes. But what if it happens, and no one gets to 270? It seems Trump would have the advantage in a House vote.
Also, on the topic of the need to replace Joe Biden, it occurs to me that I have not seen polling numbers against possible replacements. How would Trump do against Gavin Newsom or (God forbid) Kamala Harris?
There's got to be some polling on Trump vs. other Democrats, but I can't find it offhand. I would guess that Trump wallops Harris but would do a lot less well against other Dems. But I'll ask around. The other thing about those polls is that basically every Democrat is less well-known nationally than Trump or Biden, so there will be a lot of uncertainty in those numbers. What people think about a candidate they only vaguely know is different from what they will think by the time the campaign's over.
Awesome! Always love your political commentary, especially about the major elections. Good news on Trump's poll numbers. Now if you could convince some Democrats perhaps we could get back to at least a moderately sane presidential election and hopefully a relatively harmless President again.
Very nice overview, as usual, but it overlooks one possibility: if we end up with Trump and Biden as nominees of their respective parties, will a third-party candidate jump into the race? I think it’s a very real possibility, and it will be hard to predict whether such a candidate siphons more votes from Trump or Biden.
Fair enough. But who would be big enough to draw a significant number of voters?
It looks like we have our first data point taking into account the third-party candidate. There is no data on what effect the Kennedy candidacy would have on the electoral vote count, but the poll does seem to indicate it would favor Biden significantly and may turn some purple states blue. But obviously, it's early yet. The only real and lasting takeaway here is that the number of independents hungry for a viable third option remains significantly high.
https://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/NPR_PBS-NewsHour_Marist-Poll_USA-NOS-and-Tables-2024_202310131239.pdf
Good point. But how many votes would a candidate need to siphon in a small purple state? How many votes would it take to tip Georgia (11,780?) or Arizona, or to ensure that the Blue Wall (MI, WI, PA) stays blue? Someone like Chris Christie could muster that many votes in a 3-way contest, but the question is whose votes would he be siphoning off?
Or a wild card from the private sector could take a shot, a la Ross Perot (same question).
It's a fair bet that no one is strong enough to win any electoral votes. But what if it happens, and no one gets to 270? It seems Trump would have the advantage in a House vote.
Also, on the topic of the need to replace Joe Biden, it occurs to me that I have not seen polling numbers against possible replacements. How would Trump do against Gavin Newsom or (God forbid) Kamala Harris?
There's got to be some polling on Trump vs. other Democrats, but I can't find it offhand. I would guess that Trump wallops Harris but would do a lot less well against other Dems. But I'll ask around. The other thing about those polls is that basically every Democrat is less well-known nationally than Trump or Biden, so there will be a lot of uncertainty in those numbers. What people think about a candidate they only vaguely know is different from what they will think by the time the campaign's over.
Awesome! Always love your political commentary, especially about the major elections. Good news on Trump's poll numbers. Now if you could convince some Democrats perhaps we could get back to at least a moderately sane presidential election and hopefully a relatively harmless President again.