Our “Pre-War Era”

I wonder what the outcome of the war depends on.

It is past time for an update on the war in Ukraine, which is getting to the point of being quite urgent.

But I don’t need to give you an update. I can rely on Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, who just a few days ago warned that Europe is in its “pre-war era.”

Pre-war? Isn’t the war already on? What Tusk is referring to isn’t just the war in Ukraine. It’s the war that might come after that: a larger European war. In effect, he thinks we’re in the “pre-war period” for World War III in the same way that the 1930s was the “pre-war period” leading to World War II.

What Tusk is doing is trying to grab his European colleagues by the lapels and shake them out of the complacency into which they have lapsed after many decades of the Long Peace. Here’s what he said.

He said war was “no longer a concept from the past,” adding: “It’s real and it started over two years ago.”…

He revealed Spain's Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez had asked fellow EU leaders to stop using the word “war” in their summit statements because people did not want to feel threatened.

Mr. Tusk said he had replied that in his part of Europe, war was no longer an abstract idea, warning “literally any scenario is possible.” He continued: “I know it sounds devastating, especially to people of the younger generation, but we have to mentally get used to the arrival of a new era. The pre-war era.”

To show how serious he is about this, “Poland now spends 4% of its economic output on defense.” This is slightly higher, in percentage terms, than the US—though Poland’s economy is much smaller than ours.

This is followed by a frank, and accurate, summary of the current state of the war in Ukraine.

Meanwhile, Ukraine's newly appointed commander-in-chief Gen Oleksandr Syrskiy admitted in a rare interview that Russia was outgunning Ukrainian forces “about six to one” on the front line. He said Ukraine had lost territory it would “undoubtedly have retained” had it been supplied with sufficient ammo and air defense system, and described the situation in some battle areas as “tense.”

If Tusk is trying to rouse his European colleagues, whose delicate sensibilities are frightened by the very use of the word “war,” his comments might also be aimed at the United States. A major reason for Ukraine’s current shortage of ammunition is the refusal of the Republic Party to pass a military aid bill for Ukraine that was slated for the end of last year.